The dog-days of summer held true with little economic change but the fall will be much more active. Unemployment, construction spending and inflation were idle in July and August. Interest rates have continued their push upward anticipating an end to QE4, the Fed’s bond buying program. Global economies are still growing, but slowly, Brazil’s economy is now heating back up while China, Russia, and India slow; India and to a lesser extent Brazil are facing high single digit, low double digit inflation. With labor day in the rearview mirror, October and November will set our economic tone for 2014 and 2015. By Thanksgiving, clarity should exist on the federal government’s budget, the borrowing limit, the new Fed Chairman, the timeline for the Fed’s bond purchasing program; all of which will drive GDP, inflation, money supply, unemployment, and ultimately the economic performance for 2014 and 2015…we anticipate a slow down and specifically a brief and shallow recessionary period in late 2014 or early 2015 after which a much more aggressive economic rebound will occur.